Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators
This paper examines the out-of-sample performance of various financial variables as predictors of U.S. recessions. Series such as interest rates and spreads, stock prices, and monetary aggregates are evaluated individually and in comparison with other financial and nonfinancial indicators. The analysis focuses on out-of-sample performance from one to eight quarters ahead. Results show that stoc...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Review of Economics and Statistics
سال: 1998
ISSN: 0034-6535,1530-9142
DOI: 10.1162/003465398557320